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Demographics, Destiny and Dentistry
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888-324-1933
OVERVIEW In this practice management article, Dr. David Schwab argues that the destiny of dentistry is positive for at least the next two decades thanks to the aging baby boomer generation and its potential future need for dental care. What does that mean for you? More patients needing more comprehensive care, which spells higher income potential. Listen to Dr. Schwab's audio presentation, then take the free CE test accompanying the article to earn two credits.
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David Schwab, Ph.D
Owner, David Schwab & Associates, Inc.
Sanford, Fla.
407-324-1333
davidschwab.com |
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| Dr. David Schwab presents practical, user-friendly seminars and in-office consulting sessions for the entire dental team. Fast-paced, filled with humor and overflowing with "pearls," Dr. Schwab's seminars are as popular as they are useful. An internationally known seminar speaker and practice management consultant who works exclusively with dental professionals, Dr. Schwab has served as Director of Marketing for the ADA and as Executive Director of the American College of Prosthodontists. He currently works closely with Straumann to educate doctors and team members about practice management trends to help them reach their full potential. |
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I recently lectured at a seminar at which topics included the economy (not doing
great) and demographics (could not be better). I was asked whether, if I could choose only one, I would wish for a thriving economy or favorable demographics. I chose demographics. It's not even a close contest. The economy moves in cycles so complex that it is difficult even for economic experts to predict peaks and valleys. Demographic data, however, is inexorable. Demographers can tell us not only where we have been, but, with remarkable certainty, where we are headed. Demographics are destiny, and the destiny of dentistry is profoundly positive for at least the next 20 years.
The numbers are startling because people alive today are the first in history who can reasonably live to be old. In 1215, when King John signed the Magna Carta, average life expectancy was 33 years. In more recent times, life expectancy has zoomed upward. Life expectancy in the U.S. was 49.2 years at the turn of the 20th century and 77.5 years at the dawn of this century, according to the Congressional Research Service.
In the U.S., we also have a baby boom generation, those 76 million individuals who were born between 1946 and 1964. The first baby boomer will turn 65 very soon: Jan. 1, 2011. Over the next 20 years, all the other boomers will turn 65. The over-65 population will number roughly 72 million in 2030, more than double the number of the year 2000.
These demographic changes are represented in age pyramids, courtesy of the University of Southern California AgeWorks. Figure 1 shows the profile of the U.S. in 1960. Note the high numbers in the lower age ranges as boomers were being added to the population. Figure 2 shows the U.S. in 2010. The U.S. is developing a "middle-age spread," as boomers are now in their 40s through 60s.
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This chart tapers at the top because there are relatively few elderly compared with the bulge in the population in the middle-age groups. Figure 3 shows a dramatic change in 2030. The representation starts to look more like a box than a pyramid because boomers, now in their 60s through 80s, are near the top of the chart.
Beyond the sheer numbers, the aging population will significantly increase the demand for dentistry for the following reasons:
1. There have been innumerable studies that document the dental needs of the older population. In addition to the partially and fully edentulous, patients who have had dental treatment in the past will need increased maintenance for bridges, partial dentures and complete dentures that need to be relined or replaced with other dentures or implants due to bone atrophy. In fact, the demand for dental implants will be particularly strong, driven by demographics. In the older population, there are also issues of decay, periodontal disease, worn natural dentition, failing restorations, xerostomia and a continuing need for oral cancer evaluation. In short, an older adult population has greater dental needs than a younger adult population, and the older population is surging. Every day, 10,000 people in the U.S. turn 65.
2. The scientific literature is also replete with articles showing interesting relationships between periodontal disease and other systemic diseases, the so-called "perio-medical interface." While it is not possible to predict the results of future research, the literature suggests complex relationships between oral health and general health. As patients become more educated, and as additional information becomes available on the Internet and in the media, many older patients will recognize the benefits of optimal oral health as it relates to their general well-being. For years, dentists have talked to their patients about the benefits of dentistry in terms of quality-of-life issues.
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Members of an increasingly sophisticated and informed elderly population, armed with new scientific information that they are gleaning on their own and at the dentist's office, are more readily making this connection and demanding dental care as part of their attention to overall health issues. Older people get it: Dentistry is not just about teeth.
3. Because of recent difficult economic times, many dental practices have noticed a drop in patient visits. Here is the nexus of economics and demographics: While the economy has slowed, demographic trends march on relentlessly. Some patients who have deferred needed treatment are elderly; all patients are aging and
heading toward a rendezvous with old age. When dental issues are ignored, they do not spontaneously improve. Periodontal disease, in particular, is progressive. All individuals, especially the elderly, who have been putting off dental treatment since the economy started to deteriorate in late 2007, have even greater dental needs now. They will eventually seek care, either when their perceived financial situations improve, or more immediately if they experience discomfort they cannot ignore. There is great pent-up demand for dentistry. When the dam bursts, the elderly will flood dental offices.
4. Demographers often classify the elderly in different groups: the "young-old," ages 65-74; the "old," ages 74-84; and the "oldest-old," age 85 and older. The oldest-old is the fastest-growing group, but the young-old are the individuals most likely to remain active and seek regular dental care. In fact, if one looks at the "soon-to-be old," those individuals who are approaching 55, the numbers are even more impressive. Each year, more than 3.5 million Americans turn 55. By 2012, the 50-plus population in the U.S. will reach 100 million — one-third of the total population.
We know the last few years have caused economic hardships for many people. This lamentable fact has also caused a behavioral shift:
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Many have delayed retirement so they can rebuild their retirement portfolio. Social Security laws are complicated, but suffice to say that often people over 65 can collect a monthly Social Security check while they continue to work and earn a salary. The net result is increasing numbers of "young-old" (who have greater dental needs than their younger counterparts) with more disposable income. More people with more needs with more money equals more demand for dentistry.
Harry Truman once complained that he wanted to hire a one-armed economist so that person could not say, "On the one hand this, and on the other hand that." While economists confound even one another, rest assured demographers have clearly charted the demographic destiny of dentistry. It does not get any better than this.
COURSE OBJECTIVES (2 CE CREDITS)
Analyzing demographic data can tell us where we have been and where we are headed. For the first time in history, people today can reasonably live to be old; thus, life expectancy is on the rise. A "middle-age spread" is developing in the U.S. as the baby boom generation ages. In the coming decades, this will lead to a bulge in the elderly population, resulting in a significant increase in the demand for dentistry. This article by Dr. David Schwab gives several reasons for why this aging population will increase the demand for dentistry, including:
- The sheer number of aging baby boomers
- Patients who have had dental treatment in the past will need increased dental maintenance
- As patients become more educated through scientific literature, the Internet and the media, many older patients will demand dental care as part of their attention to overall health issues
- Patients who have been putting off dental treatment due to the recent economic downturn have even greater needs now, especially the elderly
- An increasing number of "young-old" (those aged 65-74), who have greater dental needs than their younger counterparts, are delaying retirement to counter the economic downturn, giving them more disposable income.
SUMMARY
Demographic data is inexorable; thus, demographics are destiny. Dr. David Schwab argues that the destiny of dentistry is positive for at least the next two decades. This is largely because the aging baby boomer generation will significantly increase the demand for dentistry due to a number of factors, including the sheer force of its numbers.
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David Schwab & Associates
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888-324-1933
davidschwab.com |
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